Trade of the House

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SELL PII · Shelley M Capito

Polaris Inc.

D

Looks like ordinary portfolio activity

Signal score 37 / 100 — how much this looks like a deliberate, informed position rather than routine portfolio activity.
Inside their committee's jurisdiction
0/32
Isolated decision, not a bulk rebalance
13/22
Small, thinly-followed company
Nobody needs inside information to buy a mega-cap.
8/10
Committee chair or ranking member
8/8
A name they had never held before
A first purchase is a decision; the ninth purchase of the same holding is a standing order.
8/8
Member's own account
0/8
Unusually large for this member
Against their own median trade, not an absolute threshold - and capped, because trades beyond 3x did worse, not better.
0/6
Position size
0/3
Leveraged instrument (option)
0/3

A high grade is not an allegation. Every input is public, and buying into an industry you work on daily is ordinary expertise. What the trade actually returned is deliberately excluded from this score and shown separately below.

It is also not a forecast. Measured across every settled trade, A-graded ones did not beat E-graded ones to any significant degree — the method page prints the table. This score says a trade looks like a decision rather than administration, and nothing more.

The filing it came from

filed in 12 days Inside two weeks - most of the following year was still available to anyone reading the filing.

No matching purchase on file. This member has no earlier disclosed purchase of PII in this account, so the position was almost certainly opened before these records begin in 2019. About 45% of sales are in this situation.

This is a sale, and the strategy does not act on it. It records the member closing a position; it is not a short signal and not an instruction to sell. Exiting when members disclose selling, rather than at twelve months, cut in-remit alpha from +6.76% to +3.57% — a cost of 6.50 points on the trades it changed. See the method.

This filing disclosed 10 transactions in total, of which 9 share this trade date (31 Dec 2020).

Filed 12 Jan 2021 · source PDF

Same day: UNHPSXAMTSYYOTISXOMCLXCARR

Price

Entry
Latest
$68.52
12 Aug 2026
Since entry
price only

52-week range $47.42 – $74.70. The marker is the entry: the first market open after this filing became public.

Polaris Inc.

Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; military and commercial ORVs; snowmobiles; motorcycles; moto-roadsters; quadricycles; and pontoon and deck boats. It al…

Market cap
$3.9B
1yr target
$72
+5.6% from $68.52
Analysts
15
hold
P/E
beta 1.28
SectorConsumer Cyclical
IndustryRecreational Vehicles
Analyst range $46 – $85
Employees14,500
InstrumentST
Jurisdiction tags unclassified

https://www.polaris.com

Outside this member's committee jurisdiction (defense, energy, healthcare, industrials, materials, technology, telecom, transport, utilities).

Expressing this with options

An illustration, not a recommendation: the nearest listed expiry to a twelve-month horizon, struck near the money. Chains are live — Yahoo publishes no historical chains, so this is priced today, not when the filing was made, and the move it describes may already have happened.

Loading chain…

Outcome

HeldThis tradeS&P 500Alpha
1m
3m
6m
12m 1yr
18m
24m
36m
48m
60m 5yr

Measured from the first open after disclosure — the earliest anyone reading this could have acted. The highlighted now row sits at its true place in the sequence, so where it falls tells you how long the position has run. The last 9 rows are blank because those windows have not closed yet: this trade was entered —, so anything longer than that is still running.

Other congressional trades in PII

GradeDateMemberSideAmount
E 31 Oct 2025 Lisa McClain sale $1,001 - $15,000
E 30 Oct 2025 Lisa McClain purchase $1,001 - $15,000
E 30 Oct 2025 Lisa McClain sale $1,001 - $15,000
E 17 Jun 2025 Lisa McClain purchase $1,001 - $15,000
E 14 Dec 2023 Jerry Moran, sale $1,001 - $15,000
E 14 Dec 2023 Jerry Moran, sale $1,001 - $15,000
E 21 Dec 2021 Jerry Moran, purchase $1,001 - $15,000
E 21 Dec 2021 Jerry Moran, purchase $1,001 - $15,000
E 10 Jun 2021 Susie Lee sale $1,001 - $15,000
E 14 May 2021 Susie Lee purchase $1,001 - $15,000
D 18 Nov 2020 Susie Lee sale $1,001 - $15,000
E 01 Oct 2020 Susie Lee purchase $1,001 - $15,000
E 19 May 2020 Susie Lee purchase $1,001 - $15,000